Estimates form the basis for all software projects. In fact, estimates are part and parcel of our daily lives. We live, plan and act by them. Our expectations are met or shattered based on the estimates we feed into our lives.
Buying food, you might estimate before you set out how much money you need, how long you think you might be and plan supper, a night out, a telephone call based on the estimates you give yourself. When life goes according to our estimates, we’re happy. Everything is running smoothly. When estimates are wrong, we adjust, but sometimes, the ability a bad estimate has to flap it’s wings and spiral out of control can be deadly. Especially for a software project.
Based on estimates, business programmes are set in motion. Budgets are approved and marketing plans are established. The length of the estimate is largely irrelevant. What’s critical is its accuracy. When projects, and hence people’s careers, lives, finances, lifestyles, families, are on the line [ok, maybe a tad dramatic :)], an estimate has the misfortune of not being taken too seriously on one hand, or far too seriously on the other.
Taken too seriously and the time to estimate can be as long as the time to do. Not taken seriously and the time to do is incalculably longer than the time to estimate.
And because estimates can be co critical, it does make sense that the right amount of energy
be invested into getting them as accurate as they need to be, weighed against the cost of getting them too accurate. No solution strategy, technology or skill set is going to set you up professionally if you don’t know how long it’s going to take you to do something, do anything. If you don’t really know how long it will take, it does imply that you don’t really know what you’re doing. And if you establish a trend over time of not delivering when you say you will it shouldn’t come as a surprise if your services become undervalued.
Of course, you can always “buffer” your estimates and play it safe. But in a dog-eat-dog world where the ubiquitous “5-minute solution” marketing threatens your chances of being awarded the contract [or the glory- however inaccurate those 5 minutes are], buffering can be expensive.
Considering the risks, together with the cost of not being accurate, it pays dividends to be more boldly accurate. And to be more boldly accurate, it takes time invested into getting to know your weaknesses. It takes being honest with your progress using feedback mechanisms that might hurt your feelings. It requires that you get better, not just at what you do, but at how you do what you do.